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In this article we consider the efficient estimation of the tail distribution of the maximum of correlated normal random variables. We show that the currently recommended Monte Carlo estimator has difficulties in quantifying its precision, because its sample variance estimator is an inefficient...
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Sudden and uncertain events often cause cross-contagion of risk among various sectors of the macroeconomy. This paper … introduces the stochastic volatility shock that follows a thick-tailed Student's t-distribution into a high-order approximate … uncertainty risk on macroeconomics. Then, the high-dimensional DSGE model (DSGE-SV-t) is developed to examine the impact of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272633
The present article deals with intra-horizon risk in models with jumps. Our general understanding of intra-horizon risk … quantifying market risk by strictly relying on point-in-time measures cannot be deemed a satisfactory approach in general. Instead …, we argue that complementing this approach by studying measures of risk that capture the magnitude of losses potentially …
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We consider a tractable affine stochastic volatility model that generalizes the seminal Heston (1993) model by … variance, and we examine the impact of the distribution of jumps on the associated implied volatility smile. We provide … sufficient conditions for the asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility of variance for small and large strikes. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006724
We present a stochastic simulation model for estimating forward-looking corporate probability of default and loss given default. We formulate the model in a discrete time frame, apply capital-budgeting techniques to define the relationships that identify the default condition, and solve the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023044
for market risk. The Committee has focused, among other things, on the two key areas of moving from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to … Expected Shortfall (ES) and considering a comprehensive incorporation of the risk of market illiquidity by extending the risk … value of the portfolio as a quadratic approximation of the change in value of the risk factors, and some of the state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012967259