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can generate a plausible disaggregation of the conditional variance process, in which the components' volatility dynamics …
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This paper presents a method for Bayesian nonparametric analysis of the return distribution in a stochastic volatility … series and two stock index return series. We find that estimates of volatility using the model can differ dramatically from …
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Realized variance can be broken down into continuous volatility and jumps. We show that these two components have very … different predictive powers on future long-term excess stock market returns. While continuous volatility is a key driver of … volatility and future returns. Two by-products of our analysis are that imposing model-based constraints on long term regressions …
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