Using monthly data for Belgium, France, Germany, Italy and Spain for the period 2002-2019, we build a Hierarchical Euro Area Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model that allows for time varying exposures of national factors on the common components, and for stochastic volatility both at the regional and...

Using parametric return autocorrelation tests and non parametric variance ratio statistics show that the UK and US short-term interest rates are unit root processes with significant mean reverting components. Congruent with this empirical evidence, we develop a new continuous time term structure...

This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization. This new estimator is an asymptotic least squares estimator defined by the no-arbitrage conditions upon which these models are built. We discuss...

We introduce a new approach to model the market smile for inflation-linked derivatives by defining the Quadratic Gaussian Year-on-Year inflation model -- the QGY model. We directly define the model in terms of a year-on-year ratio of the inflation index on a discrete tenor structure, which,...

We present efficient partial differential equation (PDE) methods for continuous time mean-variance portfolio allocation problems when the underlying risky asset follows a jump-diffusion. The standard formulation of mean-variance optimal portfolio allocation problems, where the total wealth is...

This paper develops a method to approximate arbitrage-free bond yields within a term structure model in which the short rate follows a Gaussian process censored at zero (a "shadow-rate model" as proposed by Black, 1995). The censoring ensures that model-implied yields are constrained to be...

I study the relationship between interest rates and interest-rate volatility, particularly the idea of unspanned stochastic volatility (USV): volatility risk that cannot be hedged with bonds or swaps. Simulated data is used to assess the ability of regression-based techniques, popular but...

It is well-known that interest rates are extremely persistent, yet they are best modeled and understood as stationary processes. These properties are contradictory in the workhorse Gaussian affine term structure model in which the persistent data often result in unit roots that imply...

Revisiting the two-factor valuation of financial futures contracts and their derivatives, we propose a new approach in which the covariance process between the underlying asset price and the money market interest rate is set endogenously according to investors' arbitrage operations. The...

Investors with heterogeneous trading horizons require compensation for the exposure to different risks. The no-arbitrage valuation over increasing horizons is described by the evolution of stochastic discount factors (SDFs). Each of them exhibits a multiplicative decomposition into deterministic...