This paper proposes a Skewed Stochastic Volatility (SSV) model to model time varying, asymmetric forecast distributions … to estimate Growth at Risk as introduced in Adrian et al. (2019) seminal paper "Vulnerable Growth". In contrary to their …, I modify the Tempered Particle Filter of Herbst and Schorheide (2019) to account for stochastic volatility and …

with time-varying loading coefficients and stochastic volatility, which allows for capturing changes in the pricing …

develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its …

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process … started at least 4 years earlier. We confirm the validity and universality of the volatility-confined LPPL model on seven …