In this paper we analyse a dynamic model of investment under uncertainty in a duopoly, in which each firm has an option to switch from the present market to a new market. We construct a subgame perfect equilibrium in mixed strategies and show that both preemption and attrition can occur along...

This paper develops a method to efficiently estimate hidden Markov models with continuous latent variables using maximum likelihood estimation. To evaluate the (marginal) likelihood function, I decompose the integral over the unobserved state variables into a series of lower dimensional...

I develop a new method for approximating and estimating nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models. I show that any such model can be well approximated by a discrete-state Markov process and estimated using techniques developed in Hamilton (1989). Through Monte Carlo simulations, I demonstrate...

A Stochastic Arbitrage Opportunity is defined as a zero-cost investment portfolio that enhances every feasible benchmark portfolio for all admissible utility functions. The present study provides a formal theory of consistent estimation of the set of arbitrage opportunities and an Empirical...

Linking the statistic and the machine learning literature, we provide new general results on the convergence of stochastic approximation schemes and inexact Newton methods. Building on these results, we put forward a new optimization scheme that we call generalized inexact Newton method (GINM)....

A Lévy process is observed at time points of distance delta until time T. We construct an estimator of the Lévy-Khinchine characteristics of the process and derive optimal rates of convergence simultaneously in T and delta. Thereby, we encompass the usual low- and high-frequency assumptions...

Observing prices of European put and call options, we calibrate exponential Lévy models nonparametrically. We discuss the implementation of the spectral estimation procedures for Lévy models of finite jump activity as well as for self-decomposable Lévy models and improve these methods....

Confidence intervals and joint confidence sets are constructed for the nonparametric calibration of exponential Lévy models based on prices of European options. This is done by showing joint asymptotic normality for the estimation of the volatility, the drift, the intensity and the Lévy...

Econometric estimation using simulation techniques, such as the efficient method of moments, may betime consuming. The use of ordinary matrix programming languages such as Gauss, Matlab, Ox or S-plus will very often cause extra delay. For the Efficient Method of Moments implemented to...

Given n equidistant realisations of a Lévy process (Lt; t = 0), a natural estimator for the distribution function N of the Lévy measure is constructed. Under a polynomial decay restriction on the characteristic function, a Donsker-type theorem is proved, that is, a functional central limit...