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We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014220784
It is common practice to split time-series into in-sample and pseudo out-of-sample segments and to estimate the out-of-sample loss of a given statistical model by evaluating forecasting performance over the pseudo out-of-sample segment. We propose an alternative estimator of the out-of-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309769
We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325676
This article presents two specifications for the stochastic volatility model, in order to compare them for the chosen … volatility model, although close to unitary, has a better prediction power and fitting adjustment within the sample. The AIC and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141000
Recent literature has focuses on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit … volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting performances through a Monte Carlo study and an analysis based … on empirical data of eight Chinese stocks. The results suggest that careful modeling of jumps in realized volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105658
We introduce a new class of stochastic volatility models with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) innovations. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913784
We introduce a new class of stochastic volatility models with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) innovations. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915821
When estimating and forecasting realized volatility in the presence of jumps, a form of bias-variance tradeoff is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014188741
Conditional heteroskedasticity is an important feature of many macroeconomic and financial time series. Standard residual-based bootstrap procedures for dynamic regression models treat the regression error as i.i.d. These procedures are invalid in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431797
The three most popular univariate conditional volatility models are the generalized autoregressive conditional … models are important in estimating and forecasting volatility, as well as capturing asymmetry, which is the different effects … on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, and leverage, which is the negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010405194