Using daily return data from the four major Central and Eastern European stock markets including fourteen highly liquid stocks and ATX (Vienna), PX (Prague), BUX (Budapest), and WIG20 (Warsaw) market indices, we model the value-at-risk using a set of univariate GARCH-type models. Our results...

Efficiency of the equity market is one of the areas of prime concern for the stock market regulators because of its bearing on the investment behavior of investors. Also, with the increase in the level of integration with global stock markets, information originating in different countries has...

This paper extends the economic growth model tested by Levine and Zervos (1998) by including a measure for capital allocation efficiency proxied by stock price informativeness. Using a sample of 59 countries, this study finds that stock price informativeness as measured by firm-specific return...

This paper extends the output growth model tested by Levine and Zervos (1998) by including a channel for capital allocation efficiency proxied by stock price informativeness. Using a sample of 59 countries, this study finds that stock price informativeness as measured by firm-specific return...

This paper extends the output growth model tested by Levine and Zervos (1998) by including a channel for capital allocation efficiency proxied by stock price informativeness. Using a sample of 59 countries, this study finds that stock price informativeness as measured by firm-specific return...

Tests of excessive volatility along the lines of Shiller (1981) and Leroy and Porter (1981) count among the most convincing pieces of evidence against the validity of the time-honored efficient market hypothesis. Recently, using Shiller s distinction between ex-ante rational (fundamental) price...

In the context of an autoregressive panel data model with fixed effect, we examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and consistent model selection. Consistency in parameter estimation is achieved by using the tansformation of the fixed effect proposed by Lancaster (2002)....

Backtesting stock market investment strategies is fraught with danger – for example, overfitting. The signal to noise ratio in stock markets is so low that overfitting is inevitable. Simulation offers a means of assessing and compensating for the dangers. It is not obvious at first how...

To examine the familiar tradeoff between risk and return in financial investments, we use a rolling two-stage stochastic program to compare mean-risk optimization models with time series momentum strategies. In a backtest of allocating investment between a market index and a risk-free asset, we...

Turning points in financial markets are often characterized by changes in the direction and/or magnitude of market movements with short-to-long term impacts on investors' decisions. This paper develops a Bayesian technique to turning point detection in financial equity markets. We derive the...