This paper develops a present value framework that reflects expectations of future changes in liquidity and liquidity premia. In our framework, a liquidity premium depends explicitly on prices, dividends, costs, and returns. We find that the liquidity premium for the CRSP market portfolio is...

Harry Markowitz (1959) develops "mean-variance model". Based on this model, Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Black (1972) build CAPM. However, empirical findings are not in favor of CAPM. Then，Merton (1973) generalizes CAPM and proposes ICAPM. Afterwards, Fama and French (1996) take the idea...

Using daily return data from the four major Central and Eastern European stock markets including fourteen highly liquid stocks and ATX (Vienna), PX (Prague), BUX (Budapest), and WIG20 (Warsaw) market indices, we model the value-at-risk using a set of univariate GARCH-type models. Our results...

The volatility of equity and foreign exchange market is an important input to portfolio selection and to asset pricing models. Many investment decisions and valuation of derivatives frequently rely on predictions of volatility. In this paper we review the existing empirical literature in...

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of asset allocation strategies that use conditional multi-factor models to forecast expected returns and estimate the future variance and covariance. We find that strategies based on conditional multi-factor models outperform strategies based on...

Using a CCAPM-based risk-adjustment model, we perform yearly valuations of a large sample of stocks listed on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ over a thirty-year period. The model differs from standard valuation models in the sense that it adjusts forecasted residual income for risk in the numerator rather...

We measure the information content of monthly analyst consensus forecasts for one-year-forward earnings per share (EPS) based on two well-established price discovery measures drawn from the area of market micro-structure research. Employing a 36-year sample of large US companies listed in the...

Testing for constant expected returns and forecasting future returns necessitate the information beyond a single predictor. We consider the predictive regression model with multiple predictors which are potentially strongly persistent and cointegrated. Instrumental variables based tests for...

This study empirically investigates the effects of options trading on future stock returns. Leveraging the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 exchange-traded fund (50ETF) options trading data in China, we show that put-call ratios, skewness ratios, and China's Volatility Index exhibit economically and...

This paper applies a recently developed social media-based sentiment proxy for the construction of a new risk factor for sentiment-augmented asset pricing models on U.S. equities. Accounting for endogeneity, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in a GMM framework, we find that the inclusion...