Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...

The goal ofthis comparative research isto investigate intra-market commonality inliquid-ity onsix small emerging Central and Eastern European (CEE) stock exchanges - inthe Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. The CEE post-commu-nist countries can beanalyzed together...

In this paper we show that the long-run stock and bond volatility and the long-run stock-bond correlation depend on macroeconomic uncertainty. We use the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) econometric approach. The findings are in accordance with the flight-to-quality phenomenon when macroeconomic...

This paper examines various state-space and VAR model specifications to investigate the contributions of expected returns and expected dividend growth to movements in the price-dividend ratio. We show that both models involve serious inference problems that need to be dealt with carefully. We...

The relationship between the level of stock market volatility and public information flow is non-linear, resembling a bell-shaped function. Medium levels of information flow generate heightened volatility, whereas weak and strong information flow do not, regardless of whether news are negative...

We compare the performance of popular covariance forecasting models in the context of a portfolio of major European equity indices. We find that models based on high-frequency data offer a clear advantage in terms of statistical accuracy. They also yield more theoretically consistent predictions...

Using daily data of the S&P 500 index from 1950 to 2015, we investigate the relation between return and transaction volume in the statistical distribution tails associated with booms and crashes in the US stock market. We use extreme value theory (peaks-over-threshold method) to study the...

I propose a regime-switching generalization of instrumented principal components analysis (IPCA) that yields new insights about the relation between characteristics, factor loadings, and expected stock returns. Using a two-regime specification, I find evidence of a high-volatility regime in...

Practitioners allocate substantial resources to technical analysis whereas academic theories of market efficiency rule out technical trading profitability. We study this long-standing puzzle by designing a machine learning algorithm to search for profitable technical trading rules while...