We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on...

We analyse how the future real economic activity is discounted to the current value of stocks in the US and European markets, and find that the extraordinary threat on future real GDP growth caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was obviously one of the main factors that affected the deep dive in the...

In most countries, equity is a cheap source of funding for a country's largest financial institutions. On average, the stocks of the top 10% financial companies in a country account for over a quarter of total market capitalization, but these stocks earn returns that are significantly lower than...

We question the impact of government guarantees on the pricing of default risk in credit and stock markets and, using a Merton-type credit model, provide evidence of a structural break in the valuation of U.S. bank debt in the course of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, manifesting in a lowered...

What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Using unique archival data on collateralized lending, we show that personal experience can affect individual risk-taking and aggregate leverage. When an investor syndicate speculating in Amsterdam in 1772 went...

The issues of irrational behavior of domestic private investors in the Russian stock market come from their poor awareness of the events having a material effect on the prices of stocks. This is a major factor that lowers the confidence of domestic private investors in risk-bearing assets and...

This paper studies the mechanism that relates credit provision to asset prices. On one extreme, cheap credit may reduce the cost of capital and increase prices without trading. On the other extreme, naive borrowers may unsuccessfully ride a bubble. We collect every stock transaction for three...

This doctoral dissertation analyses the transmission of monetary policy. It applies a variety of empirical methods to study how conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures transmit to different macroeconomic and financial variables. The first article analyses the effect of monetary...

We study the effects of central bank communication about financial stability on individuals’ expectations and risk-taking. Using a randomized information experiment, we show that communication causally affects individuals’ beliefs and investment behavior, consistent with an expectations...

We differentiate the liquidity and the quality of private assets in a tractable incomplete-market model with heterogeneous agents. The model decomposes the convenience yield of government bonds into a "liquidity premium" (flight to liquidity) and a "safety premium" (flight to quality) over the...