We study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a long-run risks model framework with regime shifts in consumption and inflation dynamics. In particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and inflation are regime-dependent. This...

This paper examines the within-market and cross-market information content of order flow for stocks, corporate bonds and Treasury bonds in China. With daily-aggregated tick-by-tick data over three years on the Shanghai Security Exchange, we find negative cross-asset effects of order flow on...

A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...

As some recent studies have shown empirically, future gold price fluctuations are especially difficult to forecast. Against this background, this study evaluates the forecasting power of three methods that have been applied successfully in a stock market prediction context: 1) technical...

Momentum is one of the largest and most pervasive market anomalies. However, despite a high mean and Sharpe ratio, momentum suffers from large negative skewness that comes from momentum crash periods. These crashes occur in times of both market stress and market rebound and thus variables that...

Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods...

The study introduces empirical evidence that there are statistically significant relationships between intensity of upcoming aggregate merger activity and the present values of the factors HML and SMB in the Fama-French three-factor model of assets pricing

This study examines if the change in aggregate Tobin's q ratio (∆TBQ) can dynamically forecast return on the S&P 500 (SP). The VAR results from analyzing quarterly data from 1951Q4 to 2012Q4 show that the response of SP to ∆TBQ shock becomes significantly positive immediately. The...

This study examines how the percentage change in S&P 500 dividend yield (DY) dynamically responds to shock to the change in aggregate Tobin's q ratio (∆TBQ). The results from the VAR analysis of quarterly data from 1951Q4 to 2012Q4 show that DY significantly declines immediately following the...

The Baker and Wurgler (2006) sentiment index purports to measure irrational investor sentiment, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is designed to largely reflect fundamentals. Removing this fundamental component from the Baker and Wurgler index creates an index of investor...