This paper uses the tools of computational linguistics to analyze the qualitative part of annual reports of UK listed companies. More specifically, the frequency of words associated with different language indicators is measured and used to forecast future stock returns. We find that two of...

Using monthly data from 01/1985 to 12/2012, we find that the accounting valuation-based predictor introduced in Lee, Myers, and Swaminathan (1999) has excellent in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance. Our finding suggests that the accounting valuation-based predictor does not suffer...

The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

We examine the performance of volatility models that incorporate features such as long (short) memory, regime-switching and multifractality along with two competing distributional assumptions of the error component, i.e. Normal vs Student-t. Our precise contribution is twofold. First, we...

The Baker and Wurgler (2006) sentiment index purports to measure irrational investor sentiment, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is designed to largely reflect fundamentals. Removing this fundamental component from the Baker and Wurgler index creates an index of investor...

This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of riskneutral and realized...

In this paper we document the asymmetric role that the U.S. stock market plays in the international predictability of excess stock returns during recession and expansion periods. Most of the positive evidence accrues during the periods of recessions in the United States. During the expansions...

We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do...

We provide a new perspective on option and stock price behavior around 52-week highs and lows. We analyze whether option-implied volatilities change when stock prices approach or break through their 52-week high or low. We also study the effects of highs and lows on a stock's beta and return...

This paper proposes a novel approach to extracting option-implied equity premia, and empirically examines the information content of these risk premia for forecasting the stock market return. Our approach does not require specifying the functional form of the pricing kernel, and does not impose...