Political science theories suggest that U.S. presidents' tenures in office share distinct phases, which have systematic characteristics, that span party ideologies. However, limited attention has been paid to the relation between the presidential life cycle and financial markets. We document...

We develop an index, termed the Government Legislative Index (GLX), that measures the ability of the US Government to execute legislation. In essence, the GLX measures the ability of the President and the ruling party to successfully convert proposed legislation into rules and regulations....

We show that stock prices underreact when there is a political event, reflected in higher momentum returns. We conjecture that political news crowds out stock news cause investors to distract, trade more indexes and underreact to firm specific news. We analyze momentum returns following general...

This paper presents steps to lower the overall volatility in the stock market; as a large portion is unrewarded and unjustified and driven by overreaction accompanies with herd behavior. We first map the key factors that cause volatility, such as: earnings surprise, CEO turnovers, merge and...

We use the VIX and basic trading behavior to time entry and exit from the market. Our strategy captures 89% of the bottom and 91% from the top (you miss only 11% and 9% from the peak point, respectively). We lay our strategy down in six acts. Act I: the daily average return in the stock market...

This paper demonstrates a strong inverse connection between daily stock returns and Congress in session. Our key conjecture is when Congress is in session, more media attention focuses on congressional activity than on the stock market; the more the news attention is political, the lower the...