The purpose of this shorter paper is to estimate the trend of 18 th century British slave prices. We apply robust econometric procedures on slave price data constructed by Whatley (2018) over the period 1699 to 1807 and find evidence of a structural break in 1740, thereby advocating a broken...

The recent financial and sovereign debt crises emphasized the interdependence between bank and sovereign default risk and showed that major shocks may lead to a self-reinforcing negative spiral. In this paper, we analyse the pattern of interaction between bank and sovereign default risk by...

Structural break tests are often applied as a pre-step to ensure the validity of subsequent statistical analyses. Without any a priori knowledge of the type of breaks to expect, eye-balling the data can indicate changes in some parameter, e.g., the mean. This, however, can distort the result of...

In this paper, we have considered three important variables concerning COVID-19 viz., (i) the number of daily new cases, (ii) the number of daily total cases, and (iii) the number of daily deaths, and proposed a modelling procedure, so that the nature of trend in these series could be studied...

The empirical and theoretical literature on long-term relationships in public finance is dominated by two approaches: Fiscal sustainability and Wagner's law of an increasing state activity. In this paper, we argue that these two relationships should be analyzed simultaneously and not separately....

Nordic historians have asserted for a long time that in the Nordic countries only few people, if any, perceived increased threats of war prior to the World War II outbreak. This would explain, and possibly excuse, why their governments did not mobilize their armies until it was too late. This...

Time series subject to parameter shifts of random magnitude and timing are commonly modeled with a change-point approach using Chib's (1998) algorithm to draw the break dates. We outline some advantages of an alternative approach in which breaks come through mixture distributions in state...

When in proxy-SVARs the covariance matrix of VAR disturbances is subject to exogenous, permanent, nonrecurring breaks that generate target impulse response functions (IRFs) that change across volatility regimes, even strong, exogenous external instruments can result in inconsistent estimates of...

We assess the quantitative importance of expectation effects of regime shifts in monetary policy in a DSGE model that allows the monetary policy rule to switch between a ?bad? regime and a ?good? regime. When agents take into account such regime shifts in forming expectations, the expectation...