Showing 1 - 10 of 27
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002808206
In this paper we introduce the general setting of a multivariate time series autoregressive model with stochastic time-varying coefficients and time-varying conditional variance of the error process. This allows modeling VAR dynamics for non-stationary times series and estimation of time varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460774
Following Giraitis, Kapetanios, and Yates (2014b), this paper uses kernel methods to estimate a seven variable time-varying (TV) vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the data set constructed by Smets and Wouters (2007). We apply an indirect inference method to map from this TV VAR to time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460775
Detection of structural change is a critical empirical activity, but continuous 'monitoring' of time series for structural changes in real time raises well-known econometric issues. These have been explored in a univariate context. If multiple series co-break, as may be plausible, then it is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003884694
Detection of structural change is a critical empirical activity, but continuous 'monitoring' of series, for structural changes in real time, raises well-known econometric issues that have been explored in a single series context. If multiple series co-break then it is possible that simultaneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003933923
We examine how to forecast after a recent break. We consider monitoring for change and then combining forecasts from models that do and do not use data before the change; and robust methods, namely rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially weighted moving...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008747099
We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time series dependence and the nature of the structural change are unknown. Methods that downweight older data, such as rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009510653
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009244104
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009733330
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010356917