Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant...

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters shows a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time...

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant...

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is critical for the design of monetary policy. In response to a lack of empirical support for a strict rationality assumption, monetary theorists have recently introduced learning by agents into their models. Although a...

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters show a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time...