This paper uses NIESR’s global econometric model, NiGEM, to analyse possible adjustment paths for the US current account, if its current level of 6 per cent of GDP proves unsustainable. Nominal exchange rate shifts have only a transitory impact on current account balances, so any long-term...

Using quarterly data over the period 1999Q1-2012Q1, this paper finds that the current account dynamics of Mauritius are adequately portrayed by a three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model that leads to two current account equilibria, namely a high deficit of 9% and a low...

This paper examines the current accounts of 16 developed and developing countries over the period 1970 to 2018. We test whether these nations satisfy their intertemporal solvency condition for external imbalances. The solvency condition in the strong form entails: (1) a cointegration, or a long...