A generalized correlated random walk is a process X_k of partial sums of random variables Y_j such that (X,Y) forms a Markov chain. For a sequence X^n of such processes where each Y^n_j takes only two values, we prove weak convergence to a diffusion process whose generator is explicitly...

We study a test statistic based on the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimator of the copula density and a kernel smoothed estimator of the parametric copula density. We show for fixed smoothing parameters that the test is consistent and that the asymptotic properties are driven...

We propose an affine term structure model which accommodates non-linearities in the drift and volatility function of the short-term interest rate. Such non-linearities are a consequence of discrete beta-distributed regime shifts constructed on multiple thresholds. We derive iterative closed form...

We analyze the connections between the credit spreads that the same credit risk commands in different currencies. We show that the empirically observed differences in these credit spreads are mostly driven by the dependency between the default risk of the obligor and the exchange rate. In our...

Inspired by findings of lowdimensional nonlinearities and the Theorem of Takens (1983) forecasting models of financial time series are often built upon nonparametric, i.e. universal nonlinear, univariate relationships. Empirical investigations, however, are seriously contaminated by the problem...

This paper proposes a Kolmogorov-type test for the shortfall order (also known in the literature as the right-spread or excess-wealth order) against parametric alternatives. In the case of the null hypothesis corresponding to the Negative Exponential distribution, this provides a test for the...

This paper examines how the evidence of stock market predictability affects optimal portfolio choice for buy-and-hold and dynamic investors with different planning horizons. As in Barberis (2000), particular attention is paid to estimation risk, i.e., uncertainty about the true values of the...

This paper uses statistical model selection criteria and Avramovs (2002) Bayesian model averaging approach to analyze the sample evidence on stock market predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. Based on Swiss stock market data, our posterior analysis finds that neither the...

We shed new light on the negative relationship between real stock returns or real interest rates and (i) ex post inflation, (ii) expected inflation, (iii) unexpected inflation and (iv) changes in expected inflation. Using the structural vector autoregression methodology, we propose a...