Félix, Luiz; Kräussl, Roman; Stork, Philip - 2018
responses across asset classes around US data announcements. We find that the skewness of the distribution of economic forecasts … is a strong predictor of economic surprises, suggesting that forecasters behave strategically (rational bias) and possess … private information. Our results also show that consensus forecasts of US macroeconomic releases embed anchoring. Under these …