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We introduce a new measure of systemic risk, the change in the conditional joint probability of default, which assesses the effects of the interdependence in the financial system on the general default risk of sovereign debtors. We apply our measure to examine the fragility of the European...
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This paper sets the background for the Special Issue of the Journal of Empirical Finance on the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. It identifies the channel through which risks in the financial industry leaked into the public sector. It discusses the role of the bank rescues in igniting the...
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positive shocks, which creates moral hazard and is best explained by a “too-systemic-to-fail” effect. The contagion effects are … economically significant contagion channel for tail spread increases …
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contagion using the theories of dynamical systems. Here, our main goal is to model the Eurozone financial crisis within that … detail how a suitable model can be set up for the Eurozone crisis. The dynamical system is defined by the evolution of the … prospect theory. Contagion is formulated in terms of how the market instability indicators for the different subsystems and the …
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