This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People's Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector...

The Bulgarian macroeconomic dynamic trajectory in the period 1990-2010 is taken shape under the determinant action of certain internal and external factors. The most importance among the cumulative internal factors has the processes, related to the market economy transition. They cause...

This paper analyzes the accuracy of GDP growth forecasts prepared by the EBRD for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2004. It finds that EBRD forecasts are mostly unbiased and efficient, and that forecast accuracy has improved as transition has progressed and as the range of data sources...