We use tests for structural change to identify periods of low, positive, and negative Taylor rule deviations, the difference between the federal funds rate and the rate prescribed by the original Taylor rule. The tests define four monetary policy eras: a negative deviations era during the Great...

The Taylor rule has been the dominant metric for monetary policy evaluation over the past 20 years, and it has become common practice to identify periods where policy either adheres closely to or deviates from the Taylor rule benchmark. The purpose of this paper is to identify (Taylor)...

This paper uses real-time data to show that inflation and either the output gap or unemployment, the variables which normally enter central banks' Taylor rules for interest-rate-setting, can provide evidence of out-of-sample predictability and forecasting ability for the United States...

Using real-time data that reflects information available to monetary authorities at the time they are formulating policy, we find that estimated Taylor rules based on revised and real-time data differ more for Germany than for the U.S., Taylor rules using real-time data suggest differences...

Using real-time data that reflects information available to monetary authorities at the time they are formulating policy, we find that estimated Taylor rules based on revised and real-time data differ more for Germany than for the U.S., Taylor rules using real-time data suggest differences...

Early research on the Taylor rule typically divided the data exogenously into pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan subsamples. We contribute to the recent trend of endogenizing changes in monetary policy by estimating a real-time forward-looking Taylor rule with endogenous Markov switching...

Can U.S. monetary policy in the 1970s be described by a stabilizing Taylor rule with a two percent inflation target when policy is evaluated with real-time inflation and output gap data? If so, it is problematic to use the Taylor rule as a guide to good policy as the Federal Reserve implements...

Does the Taylor rule prescribe negative interest rates for 2009-2011? This question is important because negative prescribed interest rates provide a justification for quantitative easing once actual policy rates hit the zero lower bound. We answer the question by analyzing Fed policy following...