Identi fication problems arise naturally in forward-looking models when agents observe more than economists. We illustrate the problem in several macro- finance models with Taylor rules. When the shock to the rule is observed by agents but not economists, identifi cation of the rule's parameters...

Recent empirical research shows that a reasonable characterization of federal-funds-rate targeting behavior is that the change in the target rate depends on the maturity structure of interest rates and exhibits little dependence on lagged target rates. See, for example, Cochrane and Piazzesi...