This paper studies the dynamics of a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model near the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. In addition to the standard targeted-inflation equilibrium, we consider a deflation equilibrium as well as a Markov sunspot...

A policy of forward guidance has been suggested either as a form of commitment (\Odyssean") or as a way of conveying information to the public (\Delphic"). I analyze the strategic interaction between households and the central bank as a game in which the central bank can send messages to the...

The tendency for changes in the federal funds rate to be implemented gradually has been considered evidence of an interest rate smoothing objective for the Federal Reserve. This paper investigates whether gradual funds rate movements can be explained by the dynamic structure of the economy and...

We propose a two-step approach to estimate multi-dimensional monetary policy shocks and their causal effects requiring only daily financial market data and policy events. First, we combine a heteroscedasticity-based identification scheme with recursive zero restrictions along the term structure...

This paper develops a theoretical model of trading in the federal funds market that captures characteristics of discount window borrowing and the federal funds market during the first year of the financial crisis, including the narrowing of the spread between the discount rate and the target...

The author provides a rigorous analysis of Milton Friedman's parable of the "helicopter" drop of money a permanent/irreversible increase in the nominal stock of fiat base money rate which respects the intertemporal budget constraint of the consolidated Central Bank and Treasury - the State....

In many countries, government-budget surpluses have led to a decline in the amount of federal government debt outstanding. This paper considers the consequences of this development for a central bank that conducts monetary policy through open market operations in treasury debt. A model is...

The authors provides a rigorous analysis of Milton Friedman's parable of the 'helicopter' drop of money - a permanent/irreversible increase in the nominal stock of fiat base money which respects the intertemporal budget constraint of the consolidated Central Bank and Treasury - the State....

Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last twenty years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach, which focuses on accurately fitting the cross...