There is a huge literature on the effects of uncertainty on trade levels. One very strong result of that literature is that uncertainty should not matter, as long as well developed forward markets exist. The empirical implications of this result, however, are hard to find in the data. We model...

Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA) is a method which decomposes the variation of market shares of any trader country. The more recent version is proposed by Fagerberg and Sollie (1985) that avoids some limits deriving from previously specifications. After explicating how CMSA works, this note...

It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...

The paper discusses the impact of high capital mobility for monetary and budget policy as well as for the Provision of public goods, for taxation, for wage policy and trade unions, for distribution policy, and for social security Systems. The mobility of porrfolio capital puts additional...

As the process of globalisation of the world economy progresses, the degree of international competition among enterprises increases as well. Yet not all industries or branches are affected to the same extent by this development. One of the most important factors which determine the degree of...

One of the main results of the literature on the effects of uncertainty on trade states that uncertainty should not matter in the presence of well developed forward markets. Empirical studies, however, do not support this result. We derive the demand for forward cover in a small open economy...

This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle - the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate cycle. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection...