Examining all widely-sold products in a large, national scanner database, we find that seasonality in demand is large, pervasive across product categories, and heterogeneous in its timing. Yet at seasonal frequencies prices fluctuate little, and typically, countercyclically, falling as demand...

Monthly fluctuations in consumer spending are often attributed to the weather. This paper presents a model in which weather affects the productivity of time in nonmarket activities (such as shopping or recreation), and so, via time and budget constraints, may induce substitution in spending...

Prices for seasonal food products fall at demand peaks. Price declines are not driven by falling agricultural input prices; indeed, farm to retail margins narrow sharply. I use electronic scanner data from a sample of US supermarkets to show that seasonal price declines are closely linked to...

In this study, we address a demanding time series forecasting problem that deals simultaneously with the following: (1) intermittent time series, (2) multi-step ahead forecasting, (3) time series with multiple seasonal periods, and (4) performance measures for model selection across multiple...