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Forecasting with money demand functions : the UK case
García-Ferrer, Antonio - In: Journal of forecasting 17 (1998) 2, pp. 125-145
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001244491
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Comparing the predictive ability of simple-sum and divisia monetary aggregates
Chou, Nan-ting - In: The journal of economics 13 (1987), pp. 30-36
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001250112
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Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante stock return predictability
Döpke, Jörg; Hartmann, Daniel; Pierdzioch, Christian - In: International review of financial analysis 17 (2008) 2, pp. 274-290
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003765017
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Smooth regimes, macroeconomic variables, and bagging for the short-term interest rate process
Audrino, Francesco; Medeiros, Marcelo C. - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003773443
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Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns
Döpke, Jörg (contributor); Hartmann, Daniel (contributor);  … - 2006
We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report three results. 1) Real-time macroeconomic data did not contribute much to ex ante...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003304970
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The role of log transformation in forecasting economic variables
Lütkepohl, Helmut; Fang, Xu - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003900236
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Forecasting macroeconomic variables using collapsed dynamic factor analysis
Bräuning, Falk; Koopman, Siem Jan - In: International journal of forecasting 30 (2014) 3, pp. 572-584
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010513606
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Real-time macroeconomic data and uncertainty
Glass, Katharina; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2015 - 2nd updated version
Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an increasingly important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy and offer an alternative channel of uncertainty - data uncertainty. This paper adds on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298898
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Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads : a multicountry regime-switching analysis
Ahrens, Ralf - 1999
This study uses Markov-switching models to evaluate the informational content of the term structure as a predictor of recessions in eight OECD countries. The empirical results suggest that for all countries the term spread is sensibly modelled as a two-state regime-switching process. Moreover,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768273
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Is more still better? : revisiting the sixth district coincident indicator
Silos, Pedro; Vilán, Diego - 2009
version of the D6 Factor that improves upon the original model in several ways. While the original D6 based its estimation on … estimation period by a decade. These changes provide the updated model with substantially more information while reducing the … noise in the estimation. -- coincident index ; dynamic factor model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009419466