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and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic … volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically …
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This paper studies the effects of monetary policy in a small, open economy with a floating exchange rate, sticky wages, and rational expectations in both the asset and labor markets. The model developed emphasizes the link between exchange-rate depreciation and nominal wage inflation, embodying...
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This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new …
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Deep learning has substantially advanced the state of the art in computer vision, natural language processing, and other fields. The paper examines the potential of deep learning for exchange rate forecasting. We systematically compare long short- term memory networks and gated recurrent units...
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This paper shows that there are two regularities in foreign exchange markets in advanced countries with flexible regimes. First, real exchange rates are mean-reverting, as implied by the Purchasing Power Parity model. Second, the adjustment takes place via nominal exchange rates. These features...
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Volatility forecasting is a critical task in financial markets and its importance has increased exponentially after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. As today, there is a lack of consensus among academics and practitioners on which is the most suitable forecasting model.This study contemplates two...
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