We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area …, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation … estimate the model with data from the early 1970s up to the present. Our analysis suggests that the risks of a Low inflation …

relationship between money growth and inflation in a Bayesian Markov Switching framework for a set of four countries, the US, the … money growth and inflation appears to be nonlinear, as our estimation results identify multiple inflation regimes displaying … high inflation regime but the influence of money on such signal seems to be relevant mainly in the 70s and the early 80s, i …