The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

When successive birth cohorts of women get their children at progressively lower ages, births that would have occurred during a certain period without changes in the timing, are now “squeezed” into a shorter period. This pushes period fertility up, and the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR)...