We develop a quantitative theory of repeated political transitions driven by revolts and reforms. In the model, the …

We develop a theory of political transitions inspired in part by the experiences of Western Europe and Latin America …. Nondemocratic societies are controlled by a rich elite. The initially disenfranchised poor can contest power by threatening social … unrest or revolution and this may force the elite to democratize. Democracy may not consolidate because it is more …

means to protect the economic interests of the once ruling elite. Under quot;democratic federalismquot; the constitution … creates an annual policy game where the new majority and the elite each control one policy instrument of importance to the … other. The game has a stable, stationary equilibrium that the elite may prefer to autocratic rule. We apply our analysis to …