Bivariate time series data often show strong relationships between the two components, while both individual variables can be approximated by random walks in the short run and are obviously bounded in the long run. Three model classes are considered for a time-series model selection problem:...

This paper views authority as the right to undertake decisions that impose externalities on other members of the organization. When only decision rights can be contractually assigned to one of the organization's stakeholders, the optimal assignment minimizes the resulting inefficiencies by...

This paper analyzes the patenting decision of a successful inventor in a model of dynamic technology adoption with asymmetric firms. We show that the extent of the inventor's technological headstart is decisive for his patenting behavior. The overall patenting effect consists of two parts, a...

I present in this paper an integrated framework for structuring and evaluating dynamic and sequential climate change decision making in the international arena taking into account influence processes occuring during negotiation rounds. The analysis integrates imitation, persuasion and dissuasion...

Elena Esposito analysiert das ökonomische Entscheiden in Zukunftsmärkten (finance) als „Fiktion der wahrscheinlichen Realität“ (Esposito 2007). Eine ‚wahrscheinliche Realität’ ist eine Realitätsvermutung. In der Vermutung steckt eine Vorauswahl dessen, was wahrscheinlicher ist als...

A framework is proposed for organizing phenomena related to the (mis)prediction of utility, in particular neglecting adaptation. A categorization is introduced that accounts for asymmetries in misprediction. In decision-making, goods and activities satisfying extrinsic desires are more salient...

In this paper, we consider a decision-maker who tries to learn the distribution of outcomes from previously observed cases. For each observed sequence of cases the decision-maker predicts a set of priors expressing his beliefs about the underlying probability distribution. We impose a version of...