Applying the VAR model and based on the equilibrium condition for aggregate demand and aggregate supply, the author finds that real GDP in Argentina responds negatively to a shock to the real interest rate, the external debt ratio, or the real exchange rate and positively to a shock to real...

This chapter demonstrates the usefulness of the GVAR modelling framework as a tool for scenario-based forecasting and counterfactual analysis. Working with the GVAR model developed by Greenwood-Nimmo, Nguyen and Shin (2010, J. Appl. Econometrics), we first show how probabilistic forecasting can...

The existence of linkages between the agricultural sector and the rest of the economy points to the specificity of that sector and justifies why we can conceive of a macroeconomics of agriculture . The primary sector is characterized by product homogeneity, a pre-condition for the absence of...