predict inflation in Ghana. In order to fulfil this objective, economic variables such as the consumer price index, money … Box-Jenkins approach has been used and for the cointegration model, the Johansen's approach has been utilised …) than the ARIMA model and as such may be more efficient than the ARIMA model in forecasting inflation. Therefore, the VAR …

vector autoregression is presented. The large degree of uncertainty in the choise of the cointegration vectors is … incorporated into the analysis through a prior distribution on the cointegration vectors which allows the forecaster to … different cointegration vectors are weighted together in an optimal way. The ideas of Litterman (1980) are adapted for the prior …

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC -- III. SEASONAL … CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES -- IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- References -- Appendix …