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Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging
Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M. - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778880
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Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging
Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M. - 2008
Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009735355
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Der Delta-Test : Datenselektion und nichtlineare Finanzanalyse am Beispiel der Prognose der britischen Zinsentwicklung
Rehkugler, Heinz - In: Geld, Finanzwirtschaft, Banken und Versicherungen : …, (pp. 529-557). 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001299016
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Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000
This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626
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Decision-based forecast evaluation of UK interest rate predictability
Sirichand, Kavita; Hall, Stephen G. - In: Journal of forecasting 35 (2016) 2, pp. 93-112
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011580233
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Expectations hypothesis and stochastic volatilities
Frachot, Antoine; Lesne, Jean-Philippe - 1993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000878548
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Projected polynomial autoregressions for prediction of stationary time series
DeLuna, Xavier - 1996
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000955737
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Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates
Hendry, David F. (contributor); Hubrich, Kirstin (contributor) - 2006
We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to … findings and analyse why forecasting the aggregate using information on its disaggregate components improves forecast accuracy … of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in others …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003280663
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Monetary policy inclinations
Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003704648
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Are low interest rates deflationary? : a paradox of perfect-foresight analysis
Garcia-Schmidt, Mariana; Woodford, Michael - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399418