The object of this paper is to produce non-parametric maximum likelihood estimates of forecast distributions in a general non-Gaussian, non-linear state space setting. The transition densities that define the evolution of the dynamic state process are represented in parametric form, but the...

This note suggests a simple modification to the Kwiatkowski et al. (1994, KPSS) test so that it is applicable to testing the null hypothesis of near integration against a unit root alternative. The modified KPSS test is shown not to suffer from the asymptotic size distortion problems of the...

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing in a modified version of the stochastic integration and cointegration framework of Harris, McCabe and Leybourne (2002). This nonlinear setup allows for volatility in excess of that catered for by the standard integration/cointegration paradigm...