In this paper we deal with several issues related to the quantification of business surveys. In particular, we propose and compare new ways of scoring the ordinal responses concerning the qualitative assessment of the state of the economy, such as the spectral envelope and cumulative logit...

This paper proposes a dating algorithm based on an appropriately defined Markov chain that enforces alternation of peaks and troughs, and duration constraints concerning the phases and the full cycle. The algorithm, which implements Harding and Pagan's non-parametric dating methodology, allows...

This paper proposes a dating algorithm based on an appropriately defined Markov chain that enforces alternation of peaks and troughs, and duration constraints concerning the phases and the full cycle. The algorithm, which implements Harding and Pagan's non-parametric dating methodology, allows...

This paper aims at identifying the link between financial markets and the real sector of the economy. Following the literature on the topic, we select a small set of variables representing the principal financial and real dynamics observed for the Italian economy. As a first result, we find...

This paper investigates the use of error correction models to estimate coincident GDP quarterly growth rates. We have carried out this investigation, for the euro area and the five main countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands). We have found no cointegration relation for...

This paper proposes a panel Markov-Switching (MS-) VAR model suitable for a multi-country analysis of the business cycle. We study the business cycles fluctuations of a group of countries, analyse the transmission of shocks across cycles and predict the turning points of the country-specific...