In this paper we deal with several issues related to the quantification of business surveys. In particular, we propose and compare new ways of scoring the ordinal responses concerning the qualitative assessment of the state of the economy, such as the spectral envelope and cumulative logit...

This paper aims at identifying the link between financial markets and the real sector of the economy. Following the literature on the topic, we select a small set of variables representing the principal financial and real dynamics observed for the Italian economy. As a first result, we find...

The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper in-troduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained...

The paper derives an algorithm for computing leave-k-out diagnostics for the detection of patches of outliers for stationary and non-stationary state space models with regression effects. The algorithm is based on a reverse run of the Kalman filter on the smoothing errors and is both efficient...