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What drives inventory accumulation? : news on rates of return and marginal costs
Görtz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher M.; Lubik, Thomas A. - 2019
We study the effects of news shocks on inventory accumulation in a structural VAR framework. We establish that inventories react strongly and positively to news about future increases in total factor productivity. Theory suggests that the transmission channel of news shocks to inventories works...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119865
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Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP under structural breaks
Barnett, William A.; Chauvet, Marcelle; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - 2014
containing information on real economic activity, inflation, interest rates and Divisia monetary aggregates produces the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401309
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Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni; Song, Dongho - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
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Debt dynamics and monetary policy : a note
Laséen, Stefan; Strid, Ingvar - 2013
"Leaning against the wind" - a tighter monetary policy than necessary for stabilizing inflation around the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227164
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Global uncertainty
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2021
We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431805
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Global uncertainty
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2021
We estimate a novel measure of global Önancial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-speciÖc factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identiÖcation via a combination of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432185
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The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory decompositions in cointegrated systems
Schreiber, Sven - 2011
datain that period. To calculate asymptotically valid confidence intervals we usethe delta method and two bootstrap variants …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460507
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The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory decompositions in cointegrated systems
Schreiber, Sven - 2011 - this version: February 2011
datain that period. To calculate asymptotically valid confidence intervals we use the delta method and two bootstrap variants … Bootstrap-Varianten. Zur Illustration analysieren wir die Unsicherheit der geschätzten Produktionslücken in den USA, in einem …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009530402
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A small New Keynesian model to analyze business cycle dynamics in Poland and Romania
Nalban, Valeriu - In: Contemporary economics 9 (2015) 3, pp. 319-336
growth, the inflation rate and the nominal interest rate (means, standard deviations and cross-correlations) are close to … observed variables. Shock decompositions of the output and the inflation rate revealed the driving forces of the business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392289
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Detecting unemployment hysteresis : a simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching
Klinger, Sabine; Weber, Enzo - 2015
Wir konstruieren ein neues Modell unbeobachteter Komponenten mit Markov-Switching zur Analyse von Hysterese-Effekten, also der Verfestigung ursprünglich zyklischer Fluktuationen. Das Modell kombiniert die Bestandteile einer Trend-Zyklus Zerlegung, der Identifikation von gegenseitigen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372431