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We estimate a model for exchange rate dynamics when expectations present higher order beliefs. A structural macro model for exchange rates is proposed where agents form their one-step-ahead predictions under a Bayesian learning process and in which aggregation of their choices is considered into...
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dynamics for real exchange rates. The Markov switching part captures the effect of time variations of the equilibrium exchange … rates, while the smooth transition part models the nonlinear adjustment to the equilibrium. We describe the model and the … an effort to make sense of the switching equilibrium rates, we relate relevant macroeconomic variables, such as output …
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publicly revealed does exert a disproportionate influence, and differences in the estimated signals determine the equilibrium …
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