This paper introduces a new test of the predictive performance and market timing for categorical forecasts based on contingency tables when the user has non-categorical loss functions. For example, a user might be interested in the return of an underlying variable instead of just the direction....

Assume we have a dataset, Z say, from the joint distribution of random variables X and Y , and two further, independent datasets, X and Y, from the marginal distributions of X and Y , respectively. We wish to combine X, Y and Z, so as to construct an estimator of the joint density. This problem...