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Bayesian demographic modeling and forecasting: An application to U.S. mortality
Reichmuth, Wolfgang H.; Sarferaz, Samad - 2008
development of adjacent age groups is assured allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov Chain Monte … approach we are able to asses uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that in … particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276366
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Modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality: A Bayesian approach
Reichmuth, Wolfgang H.; Sarferaz, Samad - 2008
similar development of adjacent age groups is assured, allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov … Bayesian approach we are able to assess uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that … in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276367
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Human capital accumulation and the macroeconomy in an ageing society
Heijdra, Ben J.; Reijnders, Laurie S. M. - 2012
How do population ageing shocks affect the long-run macroeconomic performance of an economy? To answer this question we build a general equilibrium overlapping generations model of a closed economy featuring endogenous factor prices. Finitely-lived individuals are endowed with perfect foresight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291543
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Skill-biased technological change and the real exchange rate
Gubler, Matthias; Sax, Christoph - 2012
We sketch a model that shows how skill-biased technological change may reverse the classic Balassa-Samuelson effect, leading to a negative relationship between the productivity in the tradable sector and the real exchange rate. In a small open economy, export goods are produced with capital,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009565836
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Ageing and the relative price of nontradeables
Bettendorf, Leon; Dewachter, Hans - 2007
In this paper we identify the effects of ageing on the relative price of nontradeables versus tradeables. We consider two cases. In a first specification, age effects only account for short-run dynamics. An alternative case allows for permanent age effects. Estimating the respective cases by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372986
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Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Real Exchange Rate
Gubler, Matthias; Sax, Christoph - 2012
We sketch a model that shows how skill-biased technological change may reverse the classic Balassa-Samuelson effect, leading to a negative relationship between the productivity in the tradable sector and the real exchange rate. In a small open economy, export goods are produced with capital,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390674
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Euro-US real exchange rate dynamics : how far can we push general equilibrium models?
Dogan, Aydan - 2014
This paper re-assesses the problem of general equilibrium models in matching the behaviour of real exchange rate. We do so by developing a two country general equilibrium model with non-traded goods, home bias, incomplete markets and partial degrees of pass through as well as nominal rigidities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010416685
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Capital controls and the real exchange rate : do controls promote disequilibria?
Montecino, Juan Antonio - 2015
The consensus view is that capital controls can effectively lengthen the maturity composition of capital inflows and increase the independence of monetary policy but are not generally effective at reducing net inflows and influencing the real exchange rate. This paper presents empirical evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484105
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Escape Clauses and Targeting of the Real Exchange Rate : The Case of Nominal Exchange Rate Pegging
Gonzalez, Pablo - 2010
We consider an economy under a fixed exchange rate system, but with bounds (a minimum level or a band) on the real exchange rate. The international price of the tradable good is characterized by the continuous arrival of shocks that change its level. In a model with microfoundations, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135111
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Revisiting the Real Exchange Rate Parity : The Role of Stock Market Information
Korhonen, Marko - 2010
In this paper we propose to augment the traditional relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates (RERI) by adding the stock market equilibrium condition to it. We introduce the relative dividend yield as the new information variable. In the empirical analysis we use recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139584