This paper tests a version of the rational expectations hypothesis using 'fixed-event' inflation forecasts for the UK. Fixed-event forecasts consist of a panel of forecasts for a set of outturns of a series at varying horizons prior to each outturn. The forecasts are the prediction of fund...

Although the target of monetary policy is clear, there have been suggestions that the conduct of monetary policy is improved by monitoring "trimmed mean" inflation rates, the mean of some central portion of the distribution of price changes. This paper assesses critically the theoretical and...