The scarcity of up-to-date data is a meaningful constraint in the analysis of capital flows, especially for Emerging Markets (EMs). Indeed, the most commonly used source of cross-country data on capital flows is the Balance of Payments (BoP) statistics collected by the International Monetary...

Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicators for capital flows that improve upon existing proxies. We find that the most...

Financial stability is an important policy objective, since crises are associated with large economic, social and political costs. Promoting stability requires preventing "sudden stops" in capital flows, which are events in which foreign financing abruptly disappears. This paper contributes to...

We analyse the effect of the uncertainty about the fundamentals on the probability of sudden stops of capital flows from a theoretical and empirical perspective. Our model predicts that the probability of crises increases with the uncertainty, ie. the dispersion of private signals about the true...

Sudden stops in capital inflows were a main characteristic of the emerging market crisis during the 1990's. Concerns about them have recurred in the light of recently increased global stability risk and the quantitative easing that led to substantial capital inflows in emerging economies. We add...

Financial stability is an important policy objective since crises are associated with big economic, social, and political costs. Promoting stability requires preventing “sudden stops” in capital flows, which are events in which foreign financing abruptly disappears. This paper contributes to...

The current account in developed countries is highly persistent and volatile in comparison to their output growth. The standard intertemporal current account model with rational expectations (RE) fails to explain the observed current account and consumption dynamics. The RE model extended with...

We empirically examine the response of cross-border capital flows to economic uncertainty. Using bilateral banking flow data, we show that while banks reduce their exposure to a foreign country when it becomes more risky, they tend to increase their exposure to their home country in bad times (a...

The current account in developed countries is highly persistent and volatile in comparison to output growth. The standard intertemporal current account model with rational expectations (RE) fails to account for the observed current account dynamics together with persistent changes in...