The interaction of macroeconomic variables may change as the nominal shortterm interest rates approaches zero. In this paper, we propose an empirical model capturing these changing dynamics with a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive process. State-dependent parameters are determined by...

When both housing prices and macroeconomic variables possess significant 'long-memory', disregarding this under-identifies demand and supply functions of a housing market. The long-run relationship among variables and the speed of disequilibrium error adjustment are also misrepresented. We...

This study contributes to the relevant literature by providing an explanation on the reason and the economic conditions under which the spread proves to be such a powerful predictor of economic activity. For over two decades numerous studies have provided evidence on the predictive ability of...

Recent structural VAR studies of the monetary transmission mechanism have voiced concerns about the use of recursive identification schemes based on short-run exclusion restrictions. We trace out the effects on impulse propagation of informational constraints embodying classical Cholesky-timing...

In this note we present an updated algorithm to estimate the VAR with stochastic volatility proposed in Mumtaz (2018). The model is re-written so that some of the Metropolis Hastings steps are avoided.

Recent structural VAR studies of the monetary transmission mechanism have voiced concerns about the use of recursive identification schemes based on short-run exclusion restrictions. We trace out the effects on impulse propagation of informational constraints embodying classical Cholesky-timing...

This paper derives a general-equilibrium model from assumptions that mimic those embodied in the Federal Reserve Board's Quarterly Model of the United States (FRB/US). The aim is to produce a conceptual framework with which to analyze the dynamic and steady-state properties of the newly...

We study the workings of the factor analysis of high-dimensional data using artificial series generated from a large, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The objective is to use the DSGE model as a laboratory that allow us to shed some light on the practical...

An apparent disconnect has taken place between inflation and economic activity in the US over the last 25 years, with price inflation remaining remarkably stable in spite of large fluctuations in the output gap and other measures of economic slack. This observation has led some to believe that...