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This paper presents and exemplifies results developed for cointegration analysis with state space models by Bauer and … Wagner in a series of papers. Unit root processes, cointegration and polynomial cointegration are defined. Based upon these … employed for cointegration analysis. By means of detailing the cases most relevant for empirical applications, the I(1), MFI(1 …
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estimate the covariance matrix of the latent states through a Kalman smoother and Expectation Maximization (KEM) algorithm …
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We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...
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