directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional … forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean …

This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters of the Euro area economy and … forecasters disagree with the average forecast tends to persist over time. This suggests that models of heterogeneous expectation …

forecast accuracy: Mean Squared Prediction Error and Mean Directional Accuracy. We also show that the first principal component …

growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …

forecast horizon decreases. In a model of noisy information with fixed target forecasts, I confirm the empirical results of …

forecast horizon decreases. In a model of noisy information with fixed target forecasts, I confirm the empirical results of …