directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional … forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean …

avenue to measure and forecast regional economic activity. …

growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …

forecast horizon decreases. In a model of noisy information with fixed target forecasts, I confirm the empirical results of …

forecast horizon decreases. In a model of noisy information with fixed target forecasts, I confirm the empirical results of …

directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. …

-cast of this leading indicator is desirable. We show that models including Google search queries now-cast and forecast better …