Previous work has established that an appreciation of the real exchange rate (REER) con-tributes to premature deindustrialization, less productive investment and dependence on commodity booms and busts in emerging markets economies (EME). From the literature, it is less clear, however, what the...

Using structural VARs, I find that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect quickly and strongly interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market. The price level and real output in...

The present paper utilises a short-run theoretical macroeconomic model of a small open economy to look at the impact of macroeconomic policies and financial deepening upon poverty through sectoral changes. This is because an expansion in certain sectors may cause greater poverty reduction. The...

Using structural VARs, I find that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect quickly and strongly interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market. The price level and real output in...

Understanding differences in business cycle phenomena between Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and industrialized countries has been at the center of recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of certain credit market imperfections...

The paper continues a series of publications on the natural science foundations of the global economy. Physical macroeconomics treats the global economy as a living system, formed during biological and socio-economic evolution.In this part of physical macroeconomics, the energy sources of the...

This article is the leading one in a series of articles describing the results of 15 years of independent research by the author. This series presents the updated and expanded results of these studies, which were previously presented in the book “Natural Science Foundations of Macroeconomics:...

Recent literature argues that conflict in shifting adjustment costs between different socioeconomic groups delays necessary reforms and finds that such reforms often follow economic crises. This paper expands these models by including external borrowing by the private sector and shows that this...

An integrated stochastic macroeconomic model of transition economy at the early stage of reforms with optimising representative risk averse agents is constructed. The equilibrium growth rate of the economy, real asset returns, domestic money demand, and expected inflation rate are determined as...

We study the extent to which countries undergo structural change during and after episodes of sustained investment surges. In particular, we explore the evolution of trade flows, considering (i) exports sophistication or complexity, (ii) exports diversification, and (iii) capital goods imports....