Previous work has established that an appreciation of the real exchange rate (REER) con-tributes to premature deindustrialization, less productive investment and dependence on commodity booms and busts in emerging markets economies (EME). From the literature, it is less clear, however, what the...

Using structural VARs, I find that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect quickly and strongly interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market. The price level and real output in...

The present paper utilises a short-run theoretical macroeconomic model of a small open economy to look at the impact of macroeconomic policies and financial deepening upon poverty through sectoral changes. This is because an expansion in certain sectors may cause greater poverty reduction. The...

Understanding differences in business cycle phenomena between Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and industrialized countries has been at the center of recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of certain credit market imperfections...

This article discusses some implications of the physical concepts of information and economic value. These concepts under the general title "Physical Macroeconomics" were proposed by the author in interdisciplinary journals and books, as well as in a series of SSRN articles.The fundamental...

Some empirical studies have shown that many developing economies were unable to recover lost trade revenue from domestic taxes after implementing trade liberalizing policies. Ignoring the fiscal cost of trade liberalization when government spending is not completely wasteful may lead to...

We use a dynamic forecasting model to evaluate a wide array of opportunities for sustained economic growth in Myanmar. Our simulation results suggest that the government of Myanmar can advance potential growth drivers, by maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment that is conducive to...

The existence of the macroeconomic cycle in the global economy is discussed. The macroeconomic cycle was evolutionary formed under the dominant influence of the annual cycle of grain production. Thus, in the current global economy, the money supply to GDP ratio is about the same as it was in the...

The paper continues a series of publications on the natural science foundations of the global economy. Physical macroeconomics treats the global economy as a living system, formed during biological and socio-economic evolution.In this part of physical macroeconomics, the energy sources of the...

This article is the leading one in a series of articles describing the results of 15 years of independent research by the author. This series presents the updated and expanded results of these studies, which were previously presented in the book “Natural Science Foundations of Macroeconomics:...