This paper examines the ability of a policy maker to control equilibrium outcomes in a global coordination game; applications include currency attacks, bank runs, and debt crises. A unique equilibrium is known to survive when the policy is exogenously fixed. We show that, by conveying...

In 1998 Rüdiger Dornbusch gave the Munich Lectures in Economics entitled "International Financial Crises". The CES Academic Council awarded him the prize and title "Distinguished CES Fellow" for his outstanding work on the monetary theory of foreign trade.Rüdiger Dornbusch passed away on July...

We study financial fragility, exchange rate crises, and monetary policy in an open economy version of a Diamond-Dybvig model. The banking system, the exchange rate regime, and central bank credit policy are seen as parts of a mechanism intended to maximize social welfare; if the mechanism fails,...

Evidence suggests that developing countries are much more concerned with stabilizing the nominal exchange rate than developed countries. This paper presents a model to explain this observation, based on the hypotheses that both interventions and depreciations are costly. Interventions are costly...

The recurring oil-price shocks that hit all economies in the world provide an opportunity to empirically test Friedman's hypothesis that flexible exchange regimes better absorb real external shocks. Using a sample of nine of the OECD's major oil-importing countries and Reinhart and Rogoff's de...

Applying basic statistical methods to a large sample of currency crises, it is shown that a variety of measures of monetary policy are significantly related to the outcome of a speculative attack. Unlike in the comparable study of Kraay (1999), discount rates have a significant but...

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under what conditions will a cut have the opposite effects? We answer these questions in a general...

During emerging market crises, domestic agents might have sufficient collateral to borrow from the other domestic agents, but they are unable to borrow from foreigners because the country, as a whole, lacks international collateral. In this setting, we show that an (ex-post) optimizing central...

The last few years have seen a significant re-evaluation of the models used to analyze crises in emerging markets. Recent models typically stress financial constraints or distorted financial incentives. While this certainly represents progress, these models share a weakness with the earlier...

Hong Kong is a unique case in the world history of exchange systems. As a territory under British administration for more than 150 years, it has maintained a floating exchange rate relationship with its sovereignty power in a separate currency area for more than a century. This exchange...