The decomposition of consumption beta into a component driven by assets' cash-flow news and one related to assets' discount-rate news reveals that macroeconomic risks embodied in cash flows largely account for the cross-sectional dynamics of average stock returns. Empirically, we find that...

This paper suggests a novel approach for predicting aggregate stock returns at quarterly and annual frequencies. Weak return predictability is consistent with the view that a stationary component of stock prices is highly persistent. In such cases, expected returns are time-varying but also...

Operating leverage (OL) and profitability are interrelated determinants of stock returns. We show that the outperformance of firms with high OL is driven by periods of unconstrained aggregate funding conditions. Firms with high OL are more risky in general, but when the Fed eases funding...

This paper evidences the explanatory power of managers' uncertainty for cross-sectional stock returns. I introduce a novel measure of the degree of managers' uncertain beliefs about future states: manager uncertainty (MU), defined as the count of the word “uncertainty” over the sum of the...

This paper examines the welfare cost of rare housing disasters characterized by large drops in house prices. I construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model with recursive preferences and housing disaster shocks. The likelihood and magnitude of housing disasters are inferred...

The last 15 years has brought forth an explosion of research on consumption-based asset pricing as a leading contender for explaining aggregate stock market behavior. This research has propelled further interest in consumption-based asset pricing, as well as some debate. This chapter surveys the...

We explicitly solve for the aggregate asset pricing quantities of a general equilibrium Lucas endowment economy inhabited by two agents with habit formation preferences. Preferences are modeled either as internal or external habits. We allow for agents' heterogeneity in relative risk aversion...

We study the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium Lucas endowment economy inhabited by two agents with habit formation preferences. Preferences are modeled either as internal or external habits. We allow for agents' heterogeneity in relative risk aversion and habit strength. We...

We develop an asset pricing model with external habit formation. The model predicts that the effect of consumption shocks on the equity premium depends on the business cycle. We test this empirical implication using a VAR model of the U.S. postwar economy whose parameters are estimated...

We explicitly solve for the aggregate asset prices in a general equilibrium Lucas endowment economy with two agents who are heterogeneous in their time-nonseparable preferences. Time-nonseparability is modeled either as internal or external habit preferences. Equilibrium quantities -- equity...