autarchic (i.e. fundamental) FX returns. The model is calibrated and tested on the Czech koruna/euro exchange rate in a setting … with seven Czech and euro area asset returns. …

We analyze the performance of Bayesian model averaged exchange rate forecasts for euro/US dollar, euro/Japanese yen …, euro/Swiss franc and euro/British pound rates using weights based on the out-of-sample predictive likelihood. The paper … predictions of euro exchange rates leads to improvements in predictive accuracy as measured by the mean square forecast error …

EURO's will be more stable than thecurrent demand for national currencies. In policy circles this seeminglymoderating …